How not to eat your own bullsh1t
/By Duncan Anderson. To see all blogs click here.
Reading time: 7 mins
Summary: The core foundation to a good life is the closest possible understanding of reality. For your understanding of reality is what everything else is built upon. If you have a poor understanding of reality it’s like your decisions are built on a foundation of quicksand.
IMO as humans, unless we actively fight against it, we will default to ‘getting high on our own supply’, ie have a highly distorted view of reality.
Perception ≠ Reality.
To not ‘eat your own bullshit’ / ‘get high on your own supply’ IMO you need:
1. To constantly think like a scientist
Scientist thinking = 1. Know some of your facts are wrong and that your opinions can always be updated so are never ‘right’ + 2. Look to falsify + 3. Leaning out of (counter for) Confirmation Bias + 4. Trying to be a Diverse Human (systematically broadening your understanding of human experience through walking a mile in others shoes through eg user testing + books + etc) + 5. You can articulate where your circle of competence ends.
2. Build a Loyal Opposition community around you.
Loyal Opposition = 1. Build their own independent view through thinking like Scientists + 2. Tell you what their independent view is => So that you can both mutually find blind spots and ego distortions and thereby have perception be closer to reality
3. Periodically test your thinking with people who think differently (/users if you’re developing a product)
No better how good the intentions of you and your loyal opposition, it’s important to guard against collectively getting high on your own supplies
If you can do this well then, Perception ≈ Reality.
Jingles:
Sycophants will eventually make you and your company sick (ie die).
You don’t want loyalty (following without questioning), you want Loyal Opposition.
Sycophants will make you sick. Loyal Opposition will enable you to build epic sh1t!
Relative realities - not the multi-verse, the manipula-verse
L0: Do not think like a Scientist, Do not have a Loyal Opposition community around you.
IMO default is to have perception get further and further away from reality.
If you don’t know much you can’t get yourself into much trouble. But if you think a lot about the world but aren’t constantly calibrating your thoughts to reality then IMO you end up in abstraction. You might know lots but it’s often counterproductive harmful knowledge.
You see the world not how it is but how you want it to be.
You see what you are looking for, not what is actually there.
Richard Feynman. “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself – and you are the easiest person to fool.”
Aka. You get high on your own supply.
Maybe 25% is an accurate understanding of reality with 75% being a combination of blind spots (ie unknown areas of reality) and ego distortions (known areas of reality that are materially warped).
L1: Do think like a Scientist, but do not have a Loyal Opposition community around you.
If you are trying to think like a scientist you'll have some areas accurate and some not.
Maybe 50% accurate perception of reality with 50% being blind spot and ego distortion.
L2: Do think like a Scientist, & Do have a Loyal Opposition community around you.
Maybe 75% perception = reality.
“I’d rather be lucky than good”... in a one off event.
In the short term luck matters more than being good (good = 1. Strong understanding of reality * 2. Accumulated skills). But in the long term (10+ years) IMO luck is miniscule vs being good.
This means that ideally 75% of decisions can be right by being good vs luck.
You have nothing to fear from the truth... but that doesn't mean the truth won't hurt. What will hurt however is ‘driving eg your business into a brick wall when you thought everything was going swimmingly’. IMO default should be that you driving full speed towards a brick wall unless you and others are constantly trying to make sure you are not.
Comment
IMO a strong understanding of reality is the foundation upon which you can change reality. IMO it’s very difficult to change reality by seeing a distorted version of it.
If you want to change reality (aka improve the world), IMO first understand reality. Otherwise you are typically pushing on a string.
++++++++++++++++++++
Details
Examples - big things, little things… And everything in between.
DA finishes writing a blog and thinks ‘i like it, it makes sense’. DA shows one person who points out key logic flaws which are obvious as soon as they are said. Yes this happens regularly.
Did I do a good job presenting? I think I did a solid job. Then I watch myself and someone points out a few things… And I'm like ‘yep, didn't see that until now did I!’
The Earth is flat. Please watch this documentary ‘Behind The Curve’ on people who believe the Earth is flat. IMO a great example not thinking like scientists and being in an echochamber.
User design of a mobile app: well I know how to use this so therefore everyone must know how to use it. DA then shows mobile to 5x people and no one sees the ‘obvious’ feature. 🤦🏻
Anything, everything… Unfortunately 🙁
IMO knowledge is a two way street, it can really help you out… or get you in trouble.
Typically the more you learn the more you think you know.
No knowledge = can’t get into trouble.
Knowledge comes in 3 forms
Useful
Not useful
Counter productive (either flat out wrong but more often ‘the best lies are half truths’. Ie you cobble together a bunch of pieces that are internally consistent but ultimately an abstraction misconstruing reality. The more knowledge you have and the better you are at problem solving the easier it is to build an internally consistent abstraction and delude yourself and others).
IMO the problem is that without 1. Thinking like a scientist and 2. Having a community of Loyal Opposition around you, all knowledge appears ‘useful’.
“Those who can get you to believe absurdities can get you to commit atrocities.” Voltaire.
Yes, the more knowledge you have and the better at problem solving you are the greater potential you have to be dangerous to yourself and others.
Know nothing and can't problem solve, IMO can't get in any trouble.
So ignorance isn't just bliss, it's safe? Well maybe safe from harm (is downside) but also ‘safe’ from upside.
The goal is to lift the ceiling without lowering the floor.
The more knowledge you have the broader the range outcomes you can have.
IMO you end up going one of two ways - towards getting high on your own supply (worse and worse understanding of reality) or towards accurate understanding of reality.
High on your own supply = 1. Do not think like a Scientist + 2. Do not have a Loyal Opposition community around you
IMO the tide tends towards getting high on your own supply. Ie the more knowledge you have the easier it is to convince yourself of whatever you want.
This is acquiring knowledge and using it badly.
High on reality (aka can change reality to be better as have a strong understanding of it) = 1. Do think like a Scientist + 2. Do have a Loyal Opposition community around you
So to go towards accurate understanding you need to constantly swim as hard as you can with others helping you against the tide.
This may sound tiring but the other option is to get swept out to sea by the tide… 🙁
I've personally found that this challenge is not tiring… But terrific
If you only take away one thing
Knowledge is power.
But it’s more important to think well than to know lots.
“I care not how much you know, I care how you know.”
Knowledge can be used for good or bad. IMO try hard to think like a scientist, try hard to be loyal opposition, try hard to build loyal opposition around you. Have knowledge enlighten you and upgrade the world, don’t have knowledge downgrade you and the world.