Realists: not pessimists, not optimists
/By Duncan Anderson. To see all blogs click here.
Reading time: 2 mins
Summary & Jingle: The glass isn’t half full, or half empty, it’s 50% full.
Optimist = Half full
Pessimist = Half empty
Realist = 50% full
Your understanding of reality is the foundation upon which everything is built
The most accurate reflection of reality is upstream of any decision and solutions you build.
I find a key strategy for high quality diagnosis is hectic realism and transparency.
I think you want to be as pragmatic as possible, to tell things as straight as possible. I don’t mind if the glass is 20% full, we can still get it to 100% full. I just want to know where things are at so we can plan as well as possible.
If you need to calibrate what someone is saying so that it better reflects reality, you are normally lowering decision making ability and velocity.
A slightly different area but something I say: I want to know good news quickly and bad news immediately. You have nothing to fear from the truth, but that doesn’t mean the truth won’t hurt. You do, however, have lots to fear from delusion.
Realism = Transparency = High ability to trust
I see realists as being minimally delusional.
Optimism = being more positive then is realistic (aka partially delusional).
Pessimism = being more negative than is realistic (aka partially delusional).
Trust is one core element to good working relationships. Being a realist is a core strategy I’ve found to build trust.
Believing you can make progress ≠ Being optimist
I used to think that being an optimist was important to making progress. But I didn’t really understand there was a third option of being a ‘realist’.
I believe the optimal way to make progress is through being a realist. As being a realist means you have the best understanding of the current state of play (reality, aka can diagnose well) and the best ability to forecast how changes you are proposing will play out (ie not overestimating [optimising] or underestimating [pessimism]) AKA can put forward quality prescriptions.
Forecast accuracy = Key strategy to build trust
I plan to write another blog on this.
I think it’s conceivable that forecast accuracy is the most important attribute of someone at work.
Forecast accuracy = 1. Reviewing your most recent forecast (1.1 Explaining why your forecast was off + 1.2 Explaining how to be less inaccurate in the future) + 2. Making the next forecast.
I’ve found one key to good at forecast accuracy is being a hardcore realist.